Jacinta Allen said growth was to be celebrated. Our Premier clearly does not understand that there are limits to growth. Growth is an unstable state – it is not possible to keep growing forever – there are limits and sooner or later there will be the inevitable correction.
Most people understand this instinctively but it was also the subject of the first report to the Club of Rome in 1972, the findings of which were that the Earth’s resources were limited, that the demands on the planet’s resources and natural systems caused by population and economic growth could not be sustained and if maintained would result in global decline this century.
Limits to growth projections have been reviewed on numerous occasions. In 2008 Dr Graham Turner (CSIRO) reviewed the modelling and projections and concluded
- The world is tracking the Limits to Growth ‘business as usual’ scenario which will lead to ecological and economic collapse (possibly from 2020 onwards)
- Australian “Future Dilemmas” are also playing out with conflicting challenges over the coming decades in labour, fuel and energy, water, land, food, emissions, infrastructure demanding a range of responses but technology and marginal change are not likely to be enough (or may even make it worse).
The implications are profound but need to be overlaid with the impact of climate change and global warming. Growth today is made possible by mining the natural resources on this planet – our soils, forests, fisheries, fresh water and so on to the point where, as Turner noted they will collapse and we are seeing evidence of this today. We are already in the midst of the planet’s sixth greatest mass extinction event – caused by one species, homo sapiens and the rate of extinction is increasing, but despite constant warnings over many decades these projections continue to fall on deaf ears, particularly policy makers and politicians.
Limiting growth and reversing it must be one of the guiding principles in government policy, particularly in city and transport planning. Ultimately this will be forced on government whether they like it or not, but the correction required will grow as governments continue to pursue business as usual. The sooner this is understood and acted on the better.